Import cargo though major American container ports appeared to end a two and a half year decline in December and is on track to show gains through the first half of 2010, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
"These numbers are a clear sign that retailers are optimistic about 2010," said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold. "Retailers are still going to be cautious with their inventories, but we wouldn't see these increases in imports if stores weren't expecting sales to improve. It's been a long time since we've seen year-over-year volume go up, so this is definitely good news."
US ports handled 1.09 million TEU in November, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was down eight per cent from October, traditionally the busiest month of the year and 10 per cent from November 2008.
The November number marked the 28th month in a row to show a decrease from the same month a year earlier. But the trend was broken in December, which was estimated at 1.08 million TEU, down slightly from November as the holiday season came to a close but a 1.7 per cent increase over December 2008.
Year-on-year increases are expected to continue through the remainder of Port Tracker's six-month forecast range. January is forecast at 1.15 million TEU, a nine per cent increase over January 2010, and February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, is forecast at 1.05 million TEU, up 25 per cent from the previous year. March is forecast at 1.16 million TEU, up 21 per cent as retailers begin to stock up for spring and summer, April at 1.19 million TEU, up 20 per cent and May at 1.2 million TEU, up 15 per cent.
While final data won't be available until next month, the report estimates that 2009 ended with a total volume of 12.7 million TEU, down 17 per cent from 2008's 15.2 million TEU and the lowest since the 12.5 million TEU reported in 2003.
"The US economy is experiencing positive growth, with imports on the rise as a result of re-stocking and a rising consumer demand," Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. "Consumer sentiment remains cautious, however."
Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by the consulting firm Hackett Associates, covers the US ports of Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971.
Source : Shipping Gazette
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